Friday, 18 November 2011

Silver: Breaking the 20d MA support.

Silver has been hugging the 20dMA for support but the declining 50dMA has proven to be much stronger and has pushed it hard enough to break the support provided by the 20dMA, forming a long black candle.

At the same time, RSI has gone below 50 which often acts as support in a declining market. It has some way to go before it becomes oversold. The MACD is forming a bearish crossover with the signal line and we could see momentum turning negative again as the MACD continues to dip. Overall picture, bearish.

As an investor, in situations like this, I would put silver higher up on my watchlist. If price were to decline further and possibly forming a lower low, I want to see a higher low on the MACD. A positive divergence is what I would be looking out for. This would be a signal to go long and I would increase my long exposure accordingly.

If we believe that the longer term direction for silver is up, there is no need to panic and we should view strong selling in the market as possible opportunity to load up instead.