Tuesday 6 September 2011

Gold is not a bubble.

There are many types of things we can invest our money in and I do not pretend to know all of these things. Indeed, I would have an extremely hard time trying to understand all kinds of investment in this world.

I try to keep an open mind about things and, indeed, if I did not, I would not have invested in real estate, gold and silver or even in stocks for that matter. I listen to reason, using insights from people like Marc Faber and Jim Rogers as compasses. Together with my limited knowledge of economics, I make my own decisions.

Although some think that gold is a bubble, I do not think so. In fact, as recently as yesterday, I was chatting in LP's infamous cbox when this topic came up again.

Gold is still nowhere near its peak in terms of real value. Real value? Yes, I am talking about gold's price adjusted for inflation. There is still some way to go.

“I don’t think that gold is in a bubble,” Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, said in a phone interview yesterday from Chiang Mai, Thailand. “When you buy gold, it’s an insurance against systematic failure and problems in the financial markets.” Read full article here.

Buying on weakness in an uptrend is the way for me.

2 comments:

Raelynn said...

mmm if i were to take the extreme skeptical view, then yes, i would say that gold is a bubble, silver is a bubble, precious metals are a bubble, market darlings are bubbles etc (you get my drift?) the value of something, be it currency or gold or stocks, is perceived and estimated and subject to human's irrationality.

having said that, in the more "realistic" view, the key here is to make sure you are not caught in the bubble. easier said than done..

AK71 said...

Hi Raelynn,

I get your drift, of course. ;)

Much depends on what is our definition of the idea of "bubble".

Although I agree that what you have said is an extreme and skeptical view, in some quarters, it is not.

So, it boils down to semantics but that is the discipline of language, not investment. Interesting topic but I won't go there. ;p

As for being caught in a bubble, you have rightly pointed out that it is not so easy to avoid being caught in one.

There is this perpetual struggle whether to stay invested as there could be further upside or to divest, fearing the downside.

Personally, I would say that having a warchest ready while staying invested would nullify more extreme emotions within us. Up or down, we are prepared. :)